Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.101860 4.478903 4.897475 5.401207 5.997331 6.688647 7.563780
2025-01-19 3.480156 3.941982 4.488660 5.197236 6.113313 7.291935 8.986972
2025-01-26 3.226732 3.753414 4.407306 5.305414 6.554806 8.317985 11.190567
2025-02-02 3.091977 3.678140 4.436296 5.533047 7.167831 9.700042 14.437042
2025-02-09 2.955662 3.578272 4.410287 5.666531 7.654174 11.008639 18.231763
2025-02-16 2.780746 3.406892 4.262619 5.594333 7.795527 11.765005 21.395458
2025-02-23 2.639799 3.268179 4.144177 5.545202 7.957138 12.596947 25.376389
2025-03-02 2.514719 3.140977 4.028937 5.483241 8.079595 13.384593 30.018898
2025-03-09 2.405543 3.028094 3.924163 5.423530 8.191783 14.186144 35.746279
2025-03-16 2.320477 2.943839 3.854755 5.412733 8.392243 15.266760 44.487140
2025-03-23 2.268891 2.904492 3.849867 5.509464 8.822793 17.117063 62.324120
2025-03-30 2.177390 2.800646 3.736391 5.402272 8.807852 17.742938 75.244528
2025-04-06 2.086879 2.695523 3.616961 5.278088 8.747891 18.261785 91.291381
2025-04-13 1.987753 2.573277 3.463686 5.079826 8.495747 18.096576 100.336394
2025-04-20 1.956916 2.552938 3.473348 5.183850 8.953411 20.559143 184.482089
2025-04-27 1.949372 2.567359 3.540095 5.402756 9.738611 24.925278 818.576496
2025-05-04 1.925209 2.554331 3.559548 5.531016 10.332919 29.226815 NaN
2025-05-11 1.869350 2.488691 3.485186 5.461653 10.381862 30.928931 NaN
2025-05-18 1.820716 2.432566 3.424190 5.414438 10.485940 33.123503 NaN
2025-05-25 1.773129 2.376273 3.359971 5.354878 10.544706 35.189372 NaN
2025-06-01 1.728666 2.323384 3.299124 5.297465 10.601062 37.404435 NaN
2025-06-08 1.693815 2.284762 3.261561 5.287081 10.802234 41.120375 NaN
2025-06-15 1.675864 2.272862 3.270857 5.380087 11.358284 49.265100 NaN